Today we play the calendar game. We start off with a weekly chart of the ES (SPY futures) dating back a few years and see what has been happening in the markets ever since. We slowly zoom into the action and try to understand where we are at within the bearish patterns that have been developing over the last 6 months. Today we notice that the 3 last days of the rally have been an ascending wedge formed by an options expiration lift, and if broken to the downside could be incredibly bearish into next week. We also notice that the last week has been basically consolidation for another potential move higher if 1008 on the S&P is broken. If that level is broken, we will shoot to the 1008 double top and probably break it and rally to at least 1020-1025 and as high as 1045. Since we’ve had 3 days of low volume rallies we believe that tomorrow could be a pull back, we played today by selling the upside 102 SPY august calls hoping for some premium, and buying september puts (even though some got stopped out earlier on).
Today we play the calendar game. We start off with a weekly chart of the ES (SPY futures) dating back a few years and see what has been happening in the markets ever since. We slowly zoom into the action and try to understand where we are at within the bearish patterns that have been developing over the last 6 months. Today we notice that the 3 last days of the rally have been an ascending wedge formed by an options expiration lift, and if broken to the downside could be incredibly bearish into next week. We also notice that the last week has been basically consolidation for another potential move higher if 1008 on the S&P is broken. If that level is broken, we will shoot to the 1008 double top and probably break it and rally to at least 1020-1025 and as high as 1045. Since we’ve had 3 days of low volume rallies we believe that tomorrow could be a pull back, we played today by selling the upside 102 SPY august calls hoping for some premium, and buying september puts (even though some got stopped out earlier on).
VISIT: WWW.STOCKTOCK.COM for intraday commentary Today we looked at the last week’s action and how shorting the stock market and buying cheap calls for protection is probably going to pan out very well. We also own JPM puts and SPY puts. We look at the longer term ramifications and how the charts are showing a lot of bearish patterns which can eventually take us to the 825-840 buffer zone and maybe even new lows down the road. While a lot of people think that this market is going to either move up or crash hard, we believe that the pace of the downtrend will begin very moderately but will speed up once the wedge support line is broken. We also look at the SPY, XLF, AIG and GLD.
Today we looked at many charts all around and have tried to make sense of the market action. While we got the strong pull back we expected early on in the day, the market did reverse and move higher making the daily S&P candle not so bearish. We still want a confirmation lower and a break of a trend line before we can get more bearish but the setup in other stocks excluding energy is to the downside. With the XLF showing huge down volume in the last 20 minutes it seems like we could see an H&S forming. Other tech look weak including BIDU, AAPL and AMZN (less weak). Financials including GS, and JPM sold off away from their highs and could be showing signs of a reversal or at least a prolonged consolidation. BAC is a very weak stock after it missed it’s earnings, with that in mind it might be worth shorting BAC and Citigroup ( C ) and going long the XLF as a hedge. I also expect WYNN to potentially hit lower lows.. but keep a stop at a descending resistance trendline, I have already gotten stopped out and i’m out of this position.
Watch and learn from my real time trading strategies. Iuse real time alerts and filter software. I can’t trade without them. Online day trading is a way for me to “make money at home” as a “home business”. I learned to day trade from videos, coaching, and other online courses. Live trading will help you learn more than paper trading. Psychology plays a major role in successful trading.
